Politics

Osun 2026: Why Bola Oyebamiji and APC Currently Hold the Edge

Published by Akinwale Fakinlede on January 7th, 2026.

As the countdown continues to the Osun State governorship election scheduled for 8 August 2026, political undercurrents across the state increasingly point to a shifting tide. From public opinion, political alignment, and on-ground observations, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presently appears to hold a decisive edge in the race.

A key factor driving this momentum is the renewed unity and organisational strength within the APC. Unlike previous election cycles marked by internal divisions, the party is entering 2026 more cohesive, strategically prepared, and fully mobilised across all local governments. This unity has translated into stronger grassroots engagement and growing confidence among voters seeking a credible alternative.

In contrast, Governor Ademola Adeleke is contesting under the platform of the Accord Party, a party with limited grassroots structure and relatively low popularity across Osun State.

This shift has significantly weakened his traditional political base and reduced the reach of his campaign machinery. Beyond party dynamics, public dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration continues to deepen.

Prominent among voter grievances are the dismissal of teachers and health workers employed under the former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola administration, a decision that affected thousands of families and remains a painful issue in many communities.

Alongside this are persistent concerns over youth unemployment, a struggling health sector, uneven road infrastructure development concentrated largely in Ede, the abandonment of the Iwo–Osogbo road project, and several unfulfilled promises made during the 2022 electioneering campaign. While Governor Adeleke retains pockets of personal followership, elections are ultimately won by structure, credibility, and public trust areas where current indicators suggest the APC has gained significant ground.

Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) remains in the contest but, based on available trends and limited statewide presence, is unlikely to substantially alter the outcome. If the election were held today, prevailing political signals suggest that Bola Oyebamiji and the APC are better positioned to reclaim the Osun Government House, buoyed by party unity, readiness, and a growing public desire for change.

As one of the fastest-growing online newspapers based in Osogbo, with over five million readers recorded in 2025, Standard Post News will continue to track voter sentiment, scrutinise campaign narratives, and provide objective political analysis as Osun approaches this critical election.

Projected Likely Outcome (If the Election Were Held Today):

• Bola Oyebamiji (APC) — Likely Winner • Ademola Adeleke (Accord Party) — Strong but trailing challenger

• Najeem Salam (ADC) — Distant third

Read more: https://standardpost.com.ng/osun-2026-why-bola-oyebamiji-and-apc-currently-hold-the-edge/