Politics

Osun 2026: Political Tensions Rise as Rumours Swirl Around Governor Adeleke’s Alleged Defection Plans

Published by Akinwale Fakinlede on July 21st, 2025.

Osun 2026: Political Tensions Rise as Rumours Swirl Around Governor Adeleke’s Alleged Defection Plans

Osun State’s political landscape is facing a period of uncertainty as speculation grows over Governor Ademola Adeleke’s potential defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The whispers of a party switch have stirred both camps—causing unease within the PDP and cautious apprehension among APC ranks—as political stakeholders brace for what could become a game-changing realignment ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial race.

Though Governor Adeleke has not made any formal announcement, the intensity of reactions and political realignments suggest the rumour is being taken seriously. Given Osun’s history of tightly contested elections, his next political step could significantly alter the state’s electoral balance.

Within the PDP, many members are rattled. Adeleke’s influence, rooted in his incumbency and personal popularity, is seen as central to the party’s current strength. The prospect of losing such a key figure has sparked internal anxiety about the PDP’s ability to maintain its hold on the state.

In the APC camp, however, reactions are more mixed. While some see Adeleke’s possible defection as a strategic boost, others are wary of the internal shake-ups that could accompany it. Longtime party loyalists, still recovering from the party’s 2022 electoral loss, fear being sidelined by a high-profile newcomer.

Observers believe Adeleke’s potential move could severely weaken multiparty competitiveness in Osun. The state’s politics has traditionally been dominated by the APC and PDP. If Adeleke shifts allegiance and takes his supporters with him, the APC could gain overwhelming dominance—leaving minor parties like the African Democratic Congress (ADC) struggling for relevance.

Electoral figures highlight just how competitive recent elections have been. In 2022, Adeleke clinched the governorship with 403,371 votes, narrowly defeating the then-incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the APC, who secured 375,027 votes—a slim difference of roughly 28,000. A year later, during the 2023 presidential election, the PDP again edged out the APC in Osun by fewer than 11,000 votes.

This raises a strategic question within the APC: Is Adeleke’s defection truly necessary for electoral success in 2026? While many within the party think they can win without him, others acknowledge his political clout, control of state resources, and loyal following as valuable assets—albeit ones that come with controversy.

Reacting to the rumoured move, the Special Assistant on Social Mobilisation to former Governor Oyetola, Mr. Ayantunji, was dismissive. He claimed Adeleke was “politically stranded” and seeking refuge, but insisted any such move would require broad consultation with party leadership. He also raised concerns about governance issues under Adeleke’s administration, such as contract inflation, political violence, and sackings in the public sector.

“Our grassroots members have worked hard to rebuild the APC since the 2022 setback. Accepting Adeleke without scrutiny could alienate the very people who kept the party alive,” Ayantunji said.

Meanwhile, APC gubernatorial hopeful Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi, who recently declared his ambition at the party’s secretariat in Osogbo, dismissed the rumoured defection as irrelevant to his plans, stating that Adeleke poses no threat to his political journey.

Analysts Decry Opportunism

The governor’s alleged intentions have also drawn criticism from political analysts. Activist and commentator Comrade Waheed Saka described the rumoured switch as an act of political opportunism and a reflection of the lack of ideological commitment in Nigerian politics. He coined the trend as “jumpology,” referring to the rampant, unprincipled party-hopping among politicians.

“What we’re witnessing is not leadership but political mercenarism,” Saka lamented, accusing Adeleke of betraying the grassroots and acting purely out of self-interest.

Another analyst, who spoke anonymously, questioned why Adeleke would seek refuge in the APC if he’s as popular as claimed. “If he’s confident in his support base, why not test his strength in a party like SDP or Labour? The APC has rules and a structure—he won’t be handed a free pass,” he noted.

ADC No Longer an Option

Amid speculation that Adeleke might consider the ADC as an alternative, that door now appears firmly shut. Tensions between Adeleke and former Governor Rauf Aregbesola—who currently serves as the ADC’s interim National Secretary—have escalated. At a recent rally, Aregbesola confidently predicted that the ADC would oust Adeleke in 2026.

Adeleke fired back, pointing to Aregbesola’s “controversial legacy” as governor and dismissing his credibility. Their public exchange has made any alliance between Adeleke and the ADC highly unlikely.

A Defining Moment for Osun

As the 2026 election approaches, political manoeuvring in Osun is intensifying. Governor Adeleke’s next move—whether to remain with the PDP, jump to the APC, or chart a new course—could reshape the state’s political structure for years to come.