Politics

Osun 2026: While Others Jostle for Space, Osogbo Finds Its Footing

Published by Akinwale Fakinlede on November 29th, 2025.

*Osun 2026: While Others Jostle for Space, Osogbo Finds Its Footing*

By Abosede Omisade

As the countdown to the 2026 governorship contest in Osun State begins in earnest, the internal dynamics of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are fast revealing a tale of contrast between discipline and disorder, clarity and confusion. Across the state’s major political blocs, ambitions are multiplying, alliances are shifting, and calculations are being redrawn. Yet amid all this motion, one development stands out with striking clarity: Osogbo has chosen unity where others remain trapped in rivalry.

In a season defined by multiple power centers and unchecked ambitions, the state capital has charted a different course. Osogbo has coalesced around a single aspirant, Kunle Rasheed Adegoke (KRAD), emerging as the only APC governorship hopeful from the city to have taken the decisive step of purchasing the party’s Expression of Interest form. That singular act has come to symbolize something far larger, a collective decision by Osogbo’s political establishment to move as one.

*How Osogbo Chose Order over Ambition*

Osogbo’s show of cohesion did not happen overnight. Weeks of behind-the-scenes consultations brought together party elders, youth leaders, professionals, ward leaders and informal power brokers. At the heart of those conversations was a shared conclusion: internal competition would only diminish the city’s influence in a fiercely contested primary.

The consensus was simple but strategic; Osogbo could not afford to cancel itself out. From those deliberations emerged KRAD as the rallying point for the capital’s aspiration, backed not merely by personal loyalty but by a deliberate political calculation.

That resolve was further reinforced when Senator Ajibola Surajudeen, long viewed as a potential entrant into the race, publicly bowed out of contention. His announcement, made in the presence of KRAD, sent a strong signal that political forces in Osogbo were aligning intentionally, not accidentally. Shortly after, Professor Rauf Durodoye also stepped aside, declining to purchase the form after consultations with party leaders in the capital.

Each withdrawal narrowed the field, strengthened consensus and removed potential fault lines. The result is unmistakable: Osogbo today presents the most coordinated and disciplined bloc within the APC ahead of the primaries.

*The West: Strength Diluted by Numbers*

Beyond Osogbo, however, the picture becomes considerably more complicated. The West Senatorial District, once expected to negotiate from a position of collective strength, is now home to the highest concentration of APC aspirants and the deepest internal divisions.

Ikire alone has produced two heavyweight contenders: a former two-term Commissioner for Finance and a former Deputy Governor. Both enjoy loyal followings and established political machinery. Rather than consolidate influence, their parallel ambitions threaten to divide not just Ikire, but the wider western bloc.

The field expands further with aspirants from Gbongan and Ile-Ogbo, pushing the total number of contenders from the West to four. What could have been a coordinated regional push has instead become a crowded contest marked by individual calculations and competing structures. With no clear mechanism for consensus-building, the West risks losing leverage at the very moment it needs it most.

Even the entry of a new aspirant from Ikirun has failed to alter the equation significantly. Her ambition, while legitimate, has not sparked any agitation or redrawn alliances. Analysts largely agree that her presence neither threatens Osogbo’s momentum nor repairs the fragmentation within the West.

*Ile-Ife: Heavyweights without Harmony*

If the West is divided, Ile-Ife’s situation is more intricate. Rather than streamline ambitions, the East Senatorial District, particularly Ife, has produced multiple high-profile aspirants simultaneously. Former senators and prominent political actors have all stepped forward, each with their own networks and narratives.

Yet influence alone does not guarantee cohesion. The absence of a unifying agenda or a clear rallying point has left the Ife bloc politically scattered. Observers warn that the multiplicity of strong personalities could result in what they describe as a “neutralization effect,” where internal competition erodes collective bargaining power.

In practical terms, Ife’s inability to settle on a preferred option may weaken its standing against zones that have already done the hard work of internal alignment.

*The Numbers Are Beginning to Speak*

Viewed together, the emerging pattern is hard to ignore. Osogbo enters the pre-primary phase with singular focus and internal discipline. The West is weighed down by an excess of ambition and no coordinating framework. Ile-Ife remains rich in political stature but poor in consensus.

In a political contest where unity often determines outcomes long before voting day, Osogbo’s advantage is no longer merely symbolic, it is strategic. The city has reduced uncertainty, minimized internal sabotage and positioned itself as a bloc capable of negotiating from strength.

As one senior party insider put it, politics favours those who can organize their ambitions, not those who multiply them without restraint. For now, Osogbo appears to understand this logic better than any other zone.

Whether the divided blocs can still find common ground remains an open question. But until they do, the center of gravity within the APC’s 2026 calculations appears to be drifting steadily toward the state capital, quietly, methodically, and with growing confidence.

*Abosede Omisade, an undergraduate of Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), contributed this piece from Ile-Ife*