Yuletide Spending and Supply Chain Disruptions Expected to Drive Inflation to 34.45% This Month
By Helen Oji and Ekundayo
Headline inflation is forecast to surge to 34.45% this month due to increased holiday spending and ongoing disruptions in the supply of goods, particularly in the agricultural sector.
This projection reflects the persistent structural challenges in Nigeria’s economy, such as poor infrastructure, high energy costs, and logistical inefficiencies, which continue to undermine the effectiveness of anti-inflation measures.
Cowry Asset Management Limited highlights that the combination of seasonal demand during the Christmas period and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks will likely push inflation to 34.45% in November. This comes after inflation hit a four-month high of 33.9% in October, up from 32.7% in September.
Key factors driving inflation include rising food prices, soaring energy costs, agricultural supply chain disruptions, and the ongoing foreign exchange crisis. Despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) efforts through interest rate hikes and the government’s zero-duty import policy, inflationary pressures persist.
The continued rise in the headline inflation rate reflects widespread price increases across various sectors, despite attempts by the government and monetary authorities to manage the situation.
This trend aligns with findings from the CBN’s recent inflation expectation survey, which reveals that both households and businesses anticipate further inflationary increases over the next three to six months.
Globally, inflation remains a major concern for policymakers, leading to stricter measures aimed at controlling rising prices while supporting economic growth. Experts argue that addressing Nigeria’s inflation crisis will require more than just monetary interventions; significant structural reforms are essential to tackling long-standing supply chain issues.
