Nigeria’s Population Could Reach 450 Million by 2050, Experts Warn
Experts have raised alarms about Nigeria’s rapidly growing population, predicting that it could reach 450 million by 2050 unless decisive action is taken to manage the fertility rate. Their concerns were shared during a media roundtable ahead of the 8th Nigeria Family Planning Conference in Abuja, organized by the Association for the Advancement of Family Planning (AAFP) in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, among other family planning stakeholders.
In his opening remarks, Dr. Ejike Oji, Chairman of the AAFP Management Committee and Local Organizing Committee for the conference, emphasized the urgency of addressing the country’s high fertility rate. He warned that if the current fertility rate persists, Nigeria’s population will increase by approximately four million people each year, leading to an estimated total of 450 million people by 2050.
“At this rate, our population will keep growing exponentially. Today, we add about four million people annually, but the increase is geometric. This means that next year, it could rise to 4.2 million, then 4.5 million, and potentially 5 million or more in the years to come,” Dr. Oji explained. He pointed out that countries like China and India, which were once poverty-stricken, managed to turn their economies around by reducing fertility rates and investing in their youth. He stressed that Nigeria has a similar opportunity, but that window is closing fast.
The current fertility rate has slightly decreased from 5.3% to 4.8%, but experts believe more drastic measures are needed. Dr. Oji called for a reduction in the fertility rate to 4% by 2030 to avoid a demographic crisis that could undermine Nigeria’s future development.
The upcoming conference, themed “Sustaining Commitments for Family Planning within the Nigeria Health Sector Renewal Investment Initiative; Advancing Progress Toward Achieving FP2030 Goals”, aims to highlight the importance of family planning as a crucial tool for managing population growth.
Dr. Martin Migombano, Managing Director of the FP2030 North, West, and Central Africa Hub, echoed Dr. Oji’s concerns, noting that Nigeria’s population growth and high maternal mortality rate — which accounts for 28.5% of global maternal deaths — present significant challenges. He called for a coordinated effort from all sectors, including government, religious leaders, donors, and civil society, to ensure that family planning services reach the grassroots where they are most needed.
Furthermore, Mrs. Ifesinachi Eze, a consultant with Amref International, highlighted the strain that disruptions in family planning services in humanitarian settings can cause. She explained that these disruptions create unmet needs, particularly for women, and urged a collaborative approach to address these challenges. Through initiatives like USAID’s Propel Adapt project, Eze emphasized the importance of developing private-sector engagement guides to strengthen family planning and reproductive health supply chains during emergencies.
Eze also stressed that collaboration between the government and the private sector is vital to creating the necessary infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and financial incentives for sustainable progress in the health sector. “No organization can achieve sustainable development alone. We must work together to ensure that the health sector thrives,”she concluded.
