Nigeria’s Poverty Rate Expected to Exceed World Bank’s 104 Million Estimate Soon – Economists
Following recent increases in fuel prices and ongoing food supply issues, economists warn that the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line may soon surpass the 104 million figure projected by the World Bank in 2023.
The World Bank’s report, released in December last year under the title “Turning the Corner: From Reforms & Renewed Hope to Results,” indicated that Nigeria’s poverty rate had risen from 40% in 2018 to 46% in 2023, resulting in an increase in the number of impoverished individuals from 79 million to 104 million.
The report attributed this rise to sluggish economic growth and escalating inflation, which pushed an additional 24 million people into poverty. It also noted a significant rise in poverty in both urban and rural areas, with urban poverty increasing from 13 million to 20 million and rural poverty rising from 67 million to 84 million.
The World Bank had anticipated that economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, starting from 2024 and extending to 2026, would address this issue. However, in an interview with Saturday PUNCH, several economists expressed concerns that recent policy decisions, including the latest fuel price increase, could push the number of impoverished Nigerians beyond the World Bank’s estimates.
Taiwo Owoeye, a Professor of Development Economics at Ekiti State University, Ado Ekiti, noted that the fuel price hike, which has led to a 45% increase in transportation costs, will exacerbate inflation and negatively impact the cost of essential goods. He pointed out that wages have not risen correspondingly, with many states still not implementing the N70,000 minimum wage, which will likely drive more Nigerians into poverty.
“It will certainly push more Nigerians below the poverty line. The 45% increase in fuel prices will ripple through the economy, affecting all sectors and worsening the economic situation for many,” Owoeye said.
Tobi Awolope, an agricultural economist from the Centre for Agricultural Development and Sustainable Environment at the Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, also expressed concerns about the impact of the fuel price hike on the already dire food crisis. She highlighted that, coupled with irregular rainfall patterns and climate change, the fuel price increase could significantly worsen the economic plight of the poor.
“It’s very possible that the number of poor Nigerians could exceed 100 million. The combination of rising fuel prices and environmental challenges could have severe long-term effects,” Awolope said.
