Politics

WHY ATIKU / ADC CANNOT BE TINUBU’S SERIOUS OPPONENT IN 2027

Published by Akinwale Fakinlede on October 11th, 2026.

*WHY ATIKU / ADC CANNOT BE TINUBU’S SERIOUS OPPONENT IN 2027*

_By Hon. Rotimi Makinde_

When I sat down and did the real political mathematics for 2027, I stopped taking Atiku Abubakar and the ADC coalition seriously as opponents to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

And the reason is simple. Structure. Polling unit structure.

Election is not won on social media. Election is not won by press conferences in Abuja. Election is won only with structure.

And when you look at this coalition, you will see the truth clearly. No governor, no minister, no commissioner. Just nobody on the ground with real structure.

How can a group that has no serving governor, no sitting minister, and no commissioner across the states claim it wants to defeat an incumbent President? Who will stand for them in the 8,800 wards and 176,000 polling units of Nigeria?

To win, or even to challenge the result of a presidential election, you must have a trusted agent in those units. An agent who will monitor accreditation, monitor voting, monitor counting, sign the result sheet, and report back immediately.

That is what the APC has. That is what President Tinubu has built over decades. From ward to ward, from local government to local government, from state to state, the APC has men and women who know their polling units like their own homes.

Can Atiku say the same today? Can ADC say the same today?

The answer is clearly no. ADC is a new bride still learning the road to the village square. It has no structure to monitor its votes in Borno, in Rivers, in Sokoto, in Osun, in Enugu. You cannot win an election you cannot monitor.

Atiku has contested before, and even then, his strength was never in grassroots structure. It was in name recognition and in rented support. Now, under a fragmented coalition with no governors and no real grassroots office holders, that weakness has tripled. His agents will be missing in at least half of the polling units in the North and in over 70 percent in the South. When results are announced, he will have nothing to defend with. No signed copies. No evidence. Only stories.

An election is not won on television. It is won at the polling unit level, unit by unit, ward by ward. That is where the Renewed Hope structure of President Tinubu is already working. That is where committed governors, ministers, commissioners, and loyal party faithful are already organized.

This is not about popularity. This is about preparation.

So let me say it clearly. If you cannot fund, train, and deploy 176,000 polling agents, and if you have no governor, no minister, no commissioner to anchor that structure, you cannot defeat an incumbent President who has the entire APC machinery behind him.

Atiku and ADC may make headlines, but they cannot make history in 2027. The structure is not there. The agents are not there. The seriousness is not there.

President Tinubu remains the man to beat, and as it stands today, there is no one on the other side with the capacity to beat him.