Ondo Gubernatorial Election: Analyzing PDP’s Disastrous Loss and Its Worst Showing Since 1999
By Clifford Ndujihe, Dayo Johnson & Dapo Akinrefon
In the recent Ondo State governorship election, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) suffered its most crushing defeat since 1999, securing only 117,845 votes. This marks the party’s poorest performance in the state’s gubernatorial races in over two decades.
Historically, the PDP had gained substantial votes in previous elections: 195,682 in 1999, 655,968 in 2003, 349,258 in 2007, 155,961 in 2012, 150,380 in 2016, and 195,791 in 2020. However, this year’s result was a significant drop, despite the party’s candidate, Hon. Ajayi Agboola, scoring better than his 69,127 votes in the 2020 race under the Labour Party (LP).
The 2024 election also saw the lowest voter turnout in Ondo’s history, underscoring the growing disenchantment with the electoral process in Nigeria. While the state had consistently seen over 40% voter participation in past elections, only 28.29% of registered voters cast their ballots this time, with just 497,077 votes out of 1,757,205 voters coming to the polls. Reports indicated that many voters were driven to the polls by money, reflecting widespread vote-buying and manipulation.
Low Voter Turnout: A Deepening Crisis
The decline in voter turnout has been a gradual but troubling trend in Ondo. In 1999, 40.24% of registered voters participated, a figure that peaked in 2003 at 59.16%. However, by 2020, turnout had dropped to 32.62%, and this year, it fell even further. In addition to voter apathy, allegations of widespread vote-buying marred the election, with reports indicating that money played a pivotal role in securing votes across various polling units.
Factors Behind PDP’s Defeat
Several key factors contributed to the PDP’s loss in the Ondo gubernatorial race:
1. Aiyedatiwa’s Stronghold: Governor Aiyedatiwa, the candidate for the All Progressives Congress (APC), managed to win across all three senatorial districts, showing his strong political network. Remarkably, Ajayi failed to win his home local government, Ese-Odo, where Aiyedatiwa triumphed by a wide margin (14,511 to 7,814 votes).
2. APC’s Strategic Leadership and Support: Ahead of the election, President Bola Tinubu personally met with key APC leaders in Ondo, emphasizing the importance of winning the state and offering financial support. The APC also mobilized substantial resources for the campaign, with nine governors, led by National Chairman Dr. Umar Ganduje, actively supporting Aiyedatiwa. The vice president, Kashim Shettima, pledged victory for the APC in all 18 council areas, highlighting the party’s intent to dominate the region.
3. Internal Division Within PDP: The PDP entered the race fractured, with several of its own aspirants defecting to other parties. Ajayi failed to unify the party after the primary, and many of his supporters, including prominent party members, deserted him for Aiyedatiwa’s camp. This internal division greatly weakened the PDP’s chances.
4. Mimiko’s Neutrality: Former Governor Olusegun Mimiko, once seen as a potential ally for Ajayi, refrained from actively supporting his candidacy, despite some of his loyalists joining Aiyedatiwa’s campaign. Had Mimiko endorsed Ajayi, it could have shifted the dynamics of the race.
5. Financial Disparity: Ajayi’s campaign struggled to compete with the financial muscle of the APC. While the PDP received backing from Governors Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Ademola Adeleke (Osun), it was no match for the resources the APC poured into the race. Reports suggested that the APC distributed significant amounts of money to voters, with some sources alleging that over N35 billion was spent on vote-buying, compared to a smaller sum by the PDP.
6. Incumbency Advantage for Aiyedatiwa: As the sitting governor, Aiyedatiwa benefitted from the incumbency advantage, including endorsements from workers, traditional rulers, and other influential groups. His administration had also focused on grassroots campaigns, appointing personal assistants to promote his achievements in local constituencies.
7. Regional Politics and One-Term Limit: Aiyedatiwa’s appeal in the Ondo North and Central senatorial districts was strengthened by his one-term limit, having assumed office after the passing of former Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Voters in these areas preferred Aiyedatiwa, knowing he would only serve one term, while Ajayi’s bid for two terms seemed less attractive.
Reactions to the Results
Following the announcement of Aiyedatiwa’s victory, both the SDP and LP candidates, Bamidele Akingboye and Dayo Awude, rejected the results, citing irregularities and widespread vote-buying. Akingboye alleged that the election was rigged, claiming that results had been predetermined and that voters had been coerced into accepting bribes. He called for a fresh election, while Awude lamented the influence of money in the electoral process, stressing that such practices undermine democracy and good governance.
As Awude noted, “As long as vote-buying remains a deciding factor in our elections, true democratic governance will continue to elude us.”
Conclusion
The 2024 Ondo State governorship election was a wake-up call for the PDP, highlighting the party’s failure to adapt to the political realities on the ground. From internal strife to an inability to counter the APC’s resources, the PDP’s loss was a result of a combination of factors, including weak leadership, poor mobilization, and the overwhelming influence of money in the electoral process. The party will need significant reforms and unity if it hopes to challenge the APC’s dominance in future elections.
